Iran Conflict Highlights Israel’s Precarious Position Between Russia and China
Israel faces a delicate balancing act between Russia and China as it braces for potential conflict with Iran, being careful not to alienate key global powers while preparing for a regional escalation
By Keren Setton/The Media Line
Israel braces itself for a possible attack by Iran and its proxies in the coming days while carefully eyeing global developments and the involvement of global powers in the regional dispute that could spill over into a much wider conflict.
Iran is reportedly in the final preparations for an attack, its revenge for Israel’s alleged assassination of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh a week ago. According to several media outlets, Russia has already begun delivering air defense systems to the Islamic Republic as it prepares to defend itself from possible Israeli retribution.
Just hours after Haniyeh’s killing, Russia issued a sharp condemnation for the act that Israel did not take responsibility for. China was also quick to condemn the act, with the foreign ministry spokesman saying the country was “deeply worried” about the developments.
Israel has been maintaining a delicate balancing act with Russia and China for many years. It has been under American pressure to distance itself from its two rivals and align more clearly with the West. A wide range of Israeli interests has led successive governments to resist this pressure, often putting the Jewish state in a tricky position.
The current conflict comes at a time when global tensions between the US, China, and Russia have been mounting, raising the stakes in the Middle Eastern conflict. The protracted Russia-Ukraine war and discord between the US and China regarding defense and trade matters have contributed to the fraught relations. The Middle East is yet another arena for these tensions to manifest.
The war between Hamas and Israel began on October 7th when the Gaza-based terrorist group launched a surprise attack on southern Israel, during which approximately 1200 Israelis were killed and 250 people were taken hostage. In response to Hamas’ attack, Israel launched a massive offensive against Hamas. The war has been going on for ten months. According to the Gaza-based Hamas-run health ministry, almost 40,000 Palestinians have been killed since by the Israeli military.
“China used October 7th mainly against the US, as a chance to poke the US in the eye and show
American double standard regarding human rights,” Galia Lavi, a researcher and Deputy Director of The Diane & Guilford Glazer Israel-China Policy Center at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) told The Media Line. “China portrays itself as promoting peace while depicting the US as war-mongering by supplying Israel with weapons, making matters worse. For China, Israel is the stick with which it hits the US in the Middle East.”
Hours after Hamas’ attack, China’s reaction did not condemn Hamas and maintained its even-handed approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, disappointing Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to China in 2013 marked a change in the relationship between the two countries.
“Israel adopted a pro-Chinese economic policy while turning a blind eye to Chinese support for Iran,” Lavi said. “There was hope that this would eventually translate into more support in other arenas.”
What followed were years of flourishing relations between Beijing and Jerusalem. All the while,
Netanyahu campaigned against the Iranian nuclear program; Israel continued to operate against Iran as part of its shadow war against Tehran and its proxies, but China didn’t budge. US pressure on Israel to curtail its activities with China mounted, and in turn, Israel already began to scale down some of its cooperation with the Chinese even before October 7th.
As Hamas terrorists stormed its southern border, Israel was stunned. But gradually, as the dust settled, there was an awakening regarding China.
“It was a breaking point, a dissolution of a fantasy,” said Lahav. “Even before, there was a realization that warm relations with China would not translate into diplomatic support.”
A recent poll conducted by the INSS showed a majority of Israelis view China as unfriendly to Israel, highlighting the sense of insult they felt in the aftermath of October 7th.
Before the war, as sitting United Nations (UN) Security Council president, China initiated and was a signatory to UN resolutions condemning Israel on several occasions.
According to Lahav, while relations are at a low point, they are not dangerous as both sides are interested in maintaining them. With veto power at the UN Security Council, China can still make life for Israel increasingly uncomfortable.
“Israel has enough enemies at this point,” said Lahav. “Relations need to continue, but it is clear that they are moving towards a new period.”
A direct conflict between Israel and Iran that could be imminent would put these relations to the test. China has supported Tehran in various ways throughout the years, from diplomatic to financial support.
It has also supplied weapons to Iran. China will want to continue to portray itself as promoting peace in the region but could voice dissatisfaction.
“China will not like such an escalation between Iran and Israel, which will be seen as a dramatic regional development that they will want to avoid and are likely making diplomatic efforts to de-escalate as we speak,” Lahav said.
Russia will likely strive for less neutrality.
“The 7th of October made it very clear that the conflict was not only between Israel and Hamas,” Dr. Dina Lisnyansky, a lecturer and researcher on the Middle East and Russia in the Middle East from Tel Aviv University and Shalem College told The Media Line. “It is clear to Israel that Hamas members were trained in Iran, used Iranian intelligence that was passed on by Russian intelligence, and there is a lot of indirect Russian involvement in the preparations for the attack.”
Lisnyansky pointed out that Israel does not have direct evidence but is convinced of the matter.
“The meaning is clear— Israel is on one side with Russia, China, and Iran who support Hamas, and Hezbollah (in Lebanon) are on the other side,” she added. “Thus, Israel finds itself in a direct confrontation with Russia, even though Russia is not taking an active part in the fighting against Israel.”
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine over two years ago, Israel has tip-toed between the sides, trying not to offend while simultaneously condemning helping Ukraine but not giving it all it wants, all while safeguarding Israel’s own geopolitical interests and maintaining its strategic alliances with the United States. Israel denounced the Russian invasion but did not join the sanctions regime put in place by Western countries.
In the years before the current Hamas-Israel war, Israel and Russia both operated in Syria, requiring close military cooperation. For Israel, the freedom of operation granted by Russia in Syria was critical in its fight against Iranian-backed militia organizations. Israel is believed to be behind hundreds of strikes in Syria as a cornerstone of its policy to push back on Iranian influence on its doorstep. Any tensions with the Kremlin could have limited Israel’s work in Syria.
The current conflict between Israel and Iran could be a major turning point in the Israeli-Russia relationship.
“Russia is now beginning to supply Iran with defense systems with the understanding that an Iranian attack on Israel is imminent and it will need defense from an Israeli retribution,” said Lisnyansky.
“Russia not only supplies Iran with weapons but continues to supply Tehran with what it needs to obtain nuclear capabilities.”
According to Lisnyansky, Russia has clearly chosen its sides.
Shortly, Russia is expected to sign a wide-scale cooperation agreement with Iran that will also incorporate clauses about the Russian defense of Iran in case of need. This agreement will be part of the BRICS framework—the pact between Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa to counter Northern America and Western Europe, namely NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).
“This will essentially put Russia at war with Israel,” said Lisnyansky.
For years, Russia has sought to solidify its hold on the Middle East at the expense of the US. Instability in the region could harm Russia’s interests or allow it to elevate its position further.
According to several media outlets on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin did ask the Iranian leadership to ensure that civilian casualties were avoided in any future attack against Israel. But, the vector of the relationship between Jerusalem and Moscow seems clear.
“What we are seeing is a gradual deterioration,” Lisnyansky said, saying Israel could perhaps choose to lower diplomatic relations in response to further discord.
Just like it will not want to alienate China completely, Israel will not want to do so with Russia. The slope is slippery, though, and Russia does not see Israel as an independent player but instead as an American proxy. This beholds the danger of escalation, as relations between the US and Russia are far from cordial. It also means a continued balancing act for Israel.
“The more Russia accumulates power in the axis opposing the US, together with Iran, China, and North Korea, Israel’s global status will decline,” said Lisnyansky. “The more the US will be viewed as a declining power, so will Israel. This means Israel needs to continue to maneuver between the two camps.”
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